If the Apple launch date for the next-generation iPhone pushes through, the guts of which are basically laid out on the Internet already, shareholders should probably temper their expectations. Apple's shares are probably not going to see the kinds of explosive activity anybody might expect around something as hyped as a massive iPhone revision.
Instead, Wall Street — which has spent months and months modeling Apple's future, reading the tea leaves, and trying to chase down as many leads as it can — is walking into the event on 12 September with as much of a good idea as the average consumer that reads, say, TechCrunch.
Since these expectations are set, there typically aren't any real surprises Apple could come out with that would force Wall Street to reassess the future of the company, and thus send the stock swinging upward or downward.
This is actually one of Apple's biggest challenges and, in recent quarters, is often cited on conference calls for the companies' quarterly earnings reports. Leaks for the next-generation iPhone are more prolific than ever. Given that the upcoming iPhone may end up having significant updates and changes, it would make sense that it would generate enough of a hype aura to get people to hold off on purchasing phones in the near term.
Still, just by reviewing what's happened in recent years, nobody see any significant stock swings following each event.
Since 2013, the trend is normally pretty similar: there might be a small shift on the actual day of the event of a few percentage points, which is maybe followed by an extended euphoria period as Wall Street starts to come in with estimates of iPhone sales and their projections for the third quarter. Then, there's a bit of a hangover period as the company starts to march toward its earnings report, which is typically where the real fireworks happen.
This is more or less a similar sentiment to what Wall Street has, which is tracking the same reports and is looking at the same tea leaves the average consumer is in order to divine where to value Apple as it heads into the fourth quarter. But in this case, the surprise last quarter was that Apple forecast a quarter that was a bit above what everyone expected — and, hence, would theoretically deliver the new iPhone on time.
That's why the release date is going to be critical for the iPhone. Apple came out with some numbers that made Wall Street rethink what the company is going to do in the third quarter and the kind of results they expect to see. If that ends up not fitting the model, then they have to change the model, and then there could be a shift.
Instead, Wall Street — which has spent months and months modeling Apple's future, reading the tea leaves, and trying to chase down as many leads as it can — is walking into the event on 12 September with as much of a good idea as the average consumer that reads, say, TechCrunch.
Since these expectations are set, there typically aren't any real surprises Apple could come out with that would force Wall Street to reassess the future of the company, and thus send the stock swinging upward or downward.
This is actually one of Apple's biggest challenges and, in recent quarters, is often cited on conference calls for the companies' quarterly earnings reports. Leaks for the next-generation iPhone are more prolific than ever. Given that the upcoming iPhone may end up having significant updates and changes, it would make sense that it would generate enough of a hype aura to get people to hold off on purchasing phones in the near term.
Still, just by reviewing what's happened in recent years, nobody see any significant stock swings following each event.
Since 2013, the trend is normally pretty similar: there might be a small shift on the actual day of the event of a few percentage points, which is maybe followed by an extended euphoria period as Wall Street starts to come in with estimates of iPhone sales and their projections for the third quarter. Then, there's a bit of a hangover period as the company starts to march toward its earnings report, which is typically where the real fireworks happen.
This is more or less a similar sentiment to what Wall Street has, which is tracking the same reports and is looking at the same tea leaves the average consumer is in order to divine where to value Apple as it heads into the fourth quarter. But in this case, the surprise last quarter was that Apple forecast a quarter that was a bit above what everyone expected — and, hence, would theoretically deliver the new iPhone on time.
That's why the release date is going to be critical for the iPhone. Apple came out with some numbers that made Wall Street rethink what the company is going to do in the third quarter and the kind of results they expect to see. If that ends up not fitting the model, then they have to change the model, and then there could be a shift.
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