"Super Mario Run" is set to be released on Apple's app store on 15 December and SensorTower, an analytics firm that tracks app data, said in research published last 8 December that 20 million iOS users are ready to download the game on day one.
The game is initially free to download but Nintendo is charging US$ 9.99 for the full version. Taking into account the "millions" who have pre-registered to get a push notification when the game goes live, SensorTower predicts that "Super Mario Run" will gross US$ 71 million in its first 30 days. This is behind the US$ 107 million seen for "Clash Royale" in its first month, and the US$ 143 million seen for hit game "Pokemon Go" in the same period.
"Pokemon Go" is a game that lets users roam the real-world looking for fictional creatures to catch. The app is developed by Nianctic in partnership with Nintendo.
Still, analysts feel that Mario could be bigger than Pokemon.
"We have no doubt that first month downloads of 'Super Mario Run' will be historic—likely much greater than 'Pokemon Go' — thanks to months of prominent featuring by Apple, extensive media coverage, and more," Randy Nelson, head of mobile insights at SensorTower, wrote in a blog post on Thursday.
"Super Mario Run" marks Nintendo's first real mobile game as it looks to revive its business. The company had previously released an app called "Miitomo" which was more of a social networking service.
The Japanese gaming giant is taking a few risks with "Super Mario Run" – releasing it on Apple's devices which could potentially cannibalize its own handheld hardware sales as well as charging US$ 9.99 for the full-game in an era where most mobile games are free.
But Nintendo has little choice but to embrace mobile, particularly as its console division has suffered of late.
"It's going to be crucial game for Nintendo … they absolutely have to nail it," Serkan Toto, CEO of Japanese gaming consultant and advisory group Kantan Games, told CNBC.
Toto added that the strong brand of Mario will allow Nintendo to successfully charge a fee for the game. "Nintendo is the only company in the world that can put a US$ 10 fixed price mobile game out there," Toto added.